The IPL auction is the moment when franchises reveal what they actually think. Our pre-auction model — based on career fantasy averages, recent form and role scarcity — got about 70% of the picks in the right range. The remaining 30% broke our model in interesting ways. Here is what we learned.
The picks that broke our model
1. The mystery all-rounder at ₹6.5 crore
Our model valued this player at ₹3.5 crore based on career fantasy averages. He went for nearly double. The franchise that bought him clearly weighted role scarcity — there were only two other all-rounders of his profile in the pool.
2. The uncapped seam-bowling all-rounder at ₹4 crore
Uncapped players rarely cross ₹1.5 crore at auction. This one went for ₹4 crore — the franchise is buying ceiling, not floor.
3. The veteran Indian batter at base price
Our model had him at ₹2 crore minimum. He went unsold at first round and was picked up at base price in the accelerated round. Demand for his profile was lower than we expected.
Three picks that proved our model right
- The explosive top-order batter at ₹11 crore — every model had him as the most expensive Indian batter in the pool.
- The wrist-spin all-rounder at ₹8 crore — value matched our projection exactly.
- The wicket-keeper batter at ₹5.5 crore — franchises recognised the dual wicket-keeping + batting value.
What the auction tells us about franchise thinking
Three signals stand out across the eight surprise picks:
- Role scarcity beats player quality. Franchises will pay 1.5× to 2× for the only player in a specific role.
- Uncapped ceiling is now valued. The market has shifted from "buy proven Indian players" to "buy upside".
- Veteran anchors are out of fashion. Steady 35-run innings are no longer worth ₹3 crore+ to franchises.
Frequently asked questions
The next mega auction is scheduled for late 2026 ahead of the 2027 season. Mid-season trading windows are typically held in November.
Most franchises use a combination of data analytics and squad-balance modelling. The final price reflects role scarcity, balance needs and budget remaining.
No. The IPL auction is restricted to the ten franchises. The general public watches via broadcast and follow-up coverage.
Filed by Sameer (Kolkata) · IPL Live Fantasy editorial desk · Updated 20 July 2026.